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Gambler's Fallacy
"Strategists are prone to committing gambler's fallacy , a phenomenon whereby people inappropriately predict reversal.[...] gambler's fallacy is regression to the mean gone overboard..."
"Gambler's fallacy stems from two sorts of confusion. First, people have very poor intuition about the behavior of random events. With gambler's fallacy, they expect reversals to occur more frequently than actually happens. The second source of confusion stems from the reliance on representativeness.
Hosted Papers
Bibliography
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